Expansion
Live in Churnkey
Upgrade Readiness Score
Maintains a continuous expansion-intent score for every subscriber, feeding downstream growth tactics and a watchlist of who to pitch, who to talk to, and who to leave alone.
62 percent of expansion events caught, with a 1.7× conversion gain from the combined score
expansion-signal analysis across product usage data and a 110M+-subscription dataset
Validated against propensity-matched comparison groups.
How we grade evidence →Scheduled trigger · Edition 1 · June 2026
What is it?
Most expansion programs run on anecdote: the account a CSM happens to know, the subscriber who happens to write in. This tactic replaces the anecdote with a continuous per-subscriber expansion-intent score that combines integrations adoption, billing-page visits, settings activity, and feature breadth, recomputed on a schedule for every subscriber.
It is infrastructure as much as a play. The score feeds downstream growth tactics that need a readiness signal to fire well, and it maintains an operator watchlist that sorts the base into three honest buckets: who to pitch, who to talk to, and who to leave alone.
When it fires
The tactic runs on a schedule rather than an event. Every subscriber gets rescored as usage data accumulates, and score changes propagate through a webhook feed to whatever consumes them: downstream tactics, the CRM, the operator dashboard.
The watchlist is the human half. High-and-rising scores belong in front of an operator while the intent is fresh. Flat scores justify leaving the subscriber in peace. The leave-alone bucket is a feature, not a gap. Unprompted subscribers who were never going to expand cost nothing, while mistimed pitches to them cost goodwill.
What the evidence shows
The combined score catches 62 percent of expansion events and converts at 1.7 times the rate of untargeted outreach. That is measured performance across product usage data and a 110M+-subscription dataset, not a backtest on one product.
The components have their own evidence. Billing-page visits run 477 percent above baseline ahead of an upgrade, and integrations adoption carries a 376 percent gain among upgraders, the strongest single expansion signal in the dataset. The combined score exists because no single signal is sufficient, and together they are.
How it runs
In production, the tactic recomputes scores daily, emits changes over the webhook feed, and maintains the watchlist with movement flags: who crossed a band, who is rising fast, who went quiet. Downstream tactics read the score as an input. Operators read the watchlist as a queue.
Guardrails keep the score trustworthy: subscribers without enough usage data are marked unscored rather than scored badly, score bands are operator-tunable, and the feed carries the contributing signals alongside the number so a consumer can see why a score moved.
Run this for your business
Want to run Upgrade Readiness Score for your business? Connect the Churnkey MCP to your favorite AI agent. It reads your own usage and billing data and recommends the growth and retention plays most likely to move your LTV—starting with whether this one fits.
npm install -g @churnkey/mcpThis tactic maps to a Churnkey feature—the same play, running in production.
See it in action in ChurnkeyRelated tools
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Put the evidence to work.
The same dataset behind these tactics powers Churnkey's retention products. See what it finds in your subscription data.
